经济理财

翻译

Interview with James Poterba（对波特伯的一个人物专访）

译者：邹铁钉

第一段原文：It's often said that economists agree on little, but there was no divergence of opinion when the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nation's premier body of research economists, announced it had selected James Poterba as its new president and CEO as of July 1. Economists of all stripes were unanimous in their praise.

第一段译文：常话说得好，经济学家合而不同，但当号称经济学家梦寐以求憧憬向往的国际经济研究学会在誉荐学术卓著的罗伯特先生为（前称为）当家人时步调是那么的和谐一致，所有的成员都向罗伯特投上了赞许的一票。

第二段原文：Left-of-center columnist Paul Krugman deemed Poterba “a great choice.” Republican Martin Feldstein, NBER president for 30 years, declared Poterba “an excellent fit.” Freakonomics co-author Steven Levitt summed it up: “The choice was so obvious that I can't say I'm surprised. Nonetheless, I couldn't be more delighted, both for Poterba and for the profession. This is wonderful news.”

第二段译文：保守共产主义者克鲁格曼认为波特伯是最合适不过的人选，主政NBER近30年的马金.弗尔德斯金宣称最能胜任该职位的人非波特伯莫属，与波特伯合作撰写《Freakonomics》的史蒂文作了一个概况性评价，他认为对于罗伯特主持国际经济研究学会是板上订钉的事情，非常明确是意料之中的事情，没有任何惊讶与悬念，但是当这条激动人心的消息真正公布之时，我却掩饰不住内心的兴奋，为波特伯的这一无愧的荣誉而感到由衷的高兴和祝贺！

第三段原文：Poterba—a summa cum laude graduate of Harvard College, a Marshall scholar at Oxford University, a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Econometric Society—personifies the highest standards of scholarship in economics. His work on the impact of taxation on household and firm behavior is fundamental in the profession, and his recent exploration of how taxes affect savings and portfolio decisions, and tax-deferred retirement plans in particular, has been pathbreaking.

第三段译文：关于波特伯的一个学术简介，毕业于哈佛大学，为了表彰罗伯特在税收对经济的影响方面所作出的开创性贡献，牛津大学特聘其为马歇尔学者，该荣誉仅次于号称社会人文科学领域经济学方面最高规格的“美国艺术、科学与计量经济学会”授予的荣誉。波特伯在税收对居民和企业行为的影响方面所作的研究奠定了该研究领域的基础，更令人鼓舞的是他在“税收如何改变人们的出现行为、投资行为以及税收对整个国家养老保障体系的影响”等方面所作的研究已经取得了新的突破。

第四段原文：But skills honed as head of the top-rated economics department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as editor of the Journal of Public Economics, as director of the NBER's program on public economics and on countless policy committees over the years will be central to his future leadership of NBER. Colleagues refer often to his impartiality and his ability to bring fractious debate to cohesive conclusion. In the contentious world of research (and allocation of resources within), such skills will be invaluable.

第四段译文：波特伯的领导才能其实早在名扬四海的麻省理工大学经济系就已经得到了体现，当时的身份是公共经济学期刊的主编，曾主持过NBER旗下的公共经济项目研究，当时身边就聚集了大批甘愿屈居于其领导魅力下的经济学研究人员。关于他无可挑剔的公正品质和杰出的协调组织能力已经成为麻省理工学院的一个佳话，凝聚在波特伯身上的独特品质是世界研究领域当中不可估量的拥有巨大价值的财富。

第五段原文：In the following interview, that same respect for evidence and thoughtful consideration of alternatives is evident, but Poterba also promises to respond “nimbly” to the pressing economic challenges of our time. “One of the NBER's great strengths,” he notes, “is its ability to bring a whole range of economic researchers to bear on important questions as they emerge.”

第五段译文：在接下来的采访当中，充分彰显了他尊重事实和深谋远虑的高贵品质，同时，波特伯也承认了时代发展给经济学研究带来的巨大压力和严峻挑战。他特别提醒我们，NBER的最大优势在于其拥有的研究团队和资源整合的能力，一旦接受某一个重大项目，学会成员将会把劲往一处使，集中精力和资源投入到这一项目的研究当中去。

第六段原文：Region: Let me ask you a last question, if I may, about the NBER. You're about to become president and CEO, stepping into the shoes of Martin Feldstein, who held the position for 30 years. Can you tell us your thoughts about directions that economic research should take in coming decades and where you plan to steer the Bureau?

第六段译文：瑞吉：请允许我提最后一个关于NBER的问题。您即将继续主政NBER达30年之久前执行主席马金.弗尔德斯金的事业就任NBER的执行主席，能谈谈您在未来数十年里关于NBER经济学研究的方向，您会将它引向何方？

第七段原文：Poterba: Let me start by saying it is an incredible honor and a humbling opportunity to be asked to lead an organization which has had such an enormous impact on the course of empirical research within the economics profession. It's an exciting opportunity and one I'm looking forward to.

第七段译文：波特伯：首先我想说的是，能够出任该职位是我的巨大荣幸，鄙人有机会带领这么一个曾经在实证研究领域有着巨大影响力并已作出过卓越贡献的好组织那是三生有幸，对于我来说，这是一个激情四射的难得机会，也是我梦寐以求的梦想。

第八段原文：The NBER under Marty has been a great place for economists from different universities, sometimes from different subfields within the field of economics, to come together for discussion and collaboration. The topics have ranged widely, and they have been of broad interest to economic policy analysts whether they're in academe, government or business. I hope that the NBER will continue to deliver top-quality research that will be of general interest and that we'll manage to respond nimbly to the interesting economic developments of the day. One of the NBER's great strengths is its ability to bring a whole range of economic researchers to bear on important questions as they emerge.

第八段译文：马金.弗尔德斯金经营下的NBER已经成为来自不同大学经济学家的伟大归宿地，他们来自不同的经济领域，拥有不同的经济兴趣，但却为了学术的探讨和交流而聚集到这个大本营来。探讨的主题很宽泛，无论是来自研究，还是机构政府部门，或者商业领域，他们都有一个共同点，那就对经济政策的分析拥有广泛的兴趣与激情。我期望我们能够继续追寻经济发展脉搏而不断提出激发成员研究热情的高质量研究话题。值得注意的是，NBER的最大优势在于其拥有的研究团队和资源整合的能力，一旦接受某一个重大项目，学会成员将会把劲往一处使，集中精力和资源投入到这一项目的研究当中去。

第九段原文：I hope to follow an opportunistic strategy in directing research. Sometimes this involves looking into the crystal ball and identifying issues and questions that are likely to become more important going forward. But other times it involves looking in the rearview mirror and saying, “What's just happened that's really interesting? Should we look more deeply into this?”

第九段译文：我希望制定一个能够抓住机遇的战略以指引我们的研究方向。有时要明确研究的方向，就好比从一个水晶球中去识别瑕疵，问题本身远比我们的想象还要重要，而有时进行研究又不得不回过头看看别人和自己已经取得成就，这就好比坐在车上从后视镜里看刚刚发生了什么，这或许能够使我们的研究更为深透。

第十段原文：I would expect, for example, in the very near term I will encourage research on the role of risk in financial markets, the interplay between regulatory structure and risk-bearing by financial institutions, and the interplay between the financial services sector and the broader real economy. The economics profession needs to devote significant effort to understanding what happened during the financial market gyrations of late 2007 and 2008, to modeling the linkages between different parts of the financial sector and to explaining why contagion spread from one market to another in the way it did.

第十段译文：我有个设想，那就是，在不久的将来将大家的研究兴趣引导到三个新的领域中来，那就是风险在金融市场所扮演的角色、金融管理机制与风险承担之间的互动关系以及金融部分和实体经济之间的互动关系。经济学行业需要投入很大精力去理解当2007年和2008年之间出现金融波动时经济体系发生了什么？同时，还必须搞清楚不同金融部门之间的联动关系，至于搞懂经济波动如何在不同市场之间的传递也是极其重要的。

第十一段原文：Part of what's important here is to make sure that policy analysts and researchers in universities are brought up to speed and learn what was happening in the financial markets so they're able to think cogently about the episode we've been through and focus their research on the right issues

第十一段译文：比较重要的一方面便是要确保长期固守于大学环境下的政策分析研究人员能够迅速把握和了解金融市场的动向，以便他们将研究兴趣集中在正确的课题上，从而提出具有说服力的观点。

第十二段原文：Once we've got that knowledge base, I think the next question is “what are the lessons?” as we try to think about the potential consequences of different regulatory structures. The NBER does not make policy recommendations. It tries to identify the consequences of policies, to think through “if you do this, then this might happen” without saying whether a particular policy is a good or a bad idea.

第十二段译文：一旦我们掌握了相关基础理论与现实动态，那么下一个需要解决的问题便是要做什么？那就是去研究不同的管理机制会带来什么样不同的结果。NBER的任何研究都不会涉及具体的政策建议，它的使命是论证分析实施的政策会带来什么样的结果，也就是只要回答好“如果这样做，将会发生什么？”这个问题就足够了，而不是浪费更多口舌在某一项具体政策是好还是坏的争论当中。